All Categories

The predictable ways human judgment goes wrong — confirmation bias, anchoring, sunk cost, and how each one shows up in real decisions.

How to choose well under uncertainty: framing decisions, weighing trade-offs and opportunity cost, and judging decisions by process rather than luck.

Decision and reasoning frameworks — first-principles thinking, inversion, second-order thinking, and the other models worth carrying into every problem.

Evidence-minded techniques for building durable knowledge — spaced repetition, retrieval practice, the Feynman technique, and deliberate practice.

Structured ways to break hard problems down — defining the real problem, working from first principles, inverting, and reasoning in systems.

Thinking in likelihoods and loops: base rates, expected value, feedback loops, and the systems view that explains why outcomes surprise us.