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Probability & Systems

Thinking in likelihoods and loops: base rates, expected value, feedback loops, and the systems view that explains why outcomes surprise us.

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Probability & Systems Thinking in Base Rates: The Habit That Fixes Most Bad Predictions
What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and how to use reference classes and the outside to make...

Thinking in Base Rates: The Habit That Fixes Most Bad Predictions

What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and ho...

Jul 14, 2026