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Risk Students Professionals Deep Dive Deliberate Practice Feynman Technique Spaced Repetition Loss Aversion Sunk Cost Anchoring Confirmation Bias Base Rates Expected Value Beginner Trade-Offs All Categories View All Tags All series
Mental Models First-Principles Thinking: How to Reason From the Ground Up
What first-principles thinking is, how it differs from reasoning by analogy, a step-by-step method with a worked example, and the situations where the model mi…

First-Principles Thinking: How to Reason From the Ground Up

What first-principles thinking is, how it differs from reasoning by analogy, a step-by-step method with a wor…

Jul 19, 2026
Mental Models What Is Second-Order Thinking? A Clear Guide
What second-order thinking is, how it differs from first-order thinking, a worked example, and how to develop it — with the best mental models and books to pai…

What Is Second-Order Thinking? A Clear Guide

What second-order thinking is, how it differs from first-order thinking, a worked example, and how to develop…

Jul 16, 2026
Probability & Systems Thinking in Base Rates: The Habit That Fixes Most Bad Predictions
What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and how to use reference classes and the outside to mak…

Thinking in Base Rates: The Habit That Fixes Most Bad Predictions

What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and h…

Jul 14, 2026
Mental Models What Are Mental Models? A Practical Guide to Thinking in Frameworks
What mental models are, why a latticework of them beats raw intelligence, nine foundational models worth learning first, and how to actually use them on real d…

What Are Mental Models? A Practical Guide to Thinking in Frameworks

What mental models are, why a latticework of them beats raw intelligence, nine foundational models worth lear…

Jul 05, 2026
Decision-Making How to Make Better Decisions: A Practical Framework for Choosing Well
A step-by-step framework for better decisions — separating decision quality from luck, sizing the decision, weighing opportunity cost and expected value, and r…

How to Make Better Decisions: A Practical Framework for Choosing Well

A step-by-step framework for better decisions — separating decision quality from luck, sizing the decision, w…

Jul 05, 2026
Cognitive Biases Cognitive Biases Explained: Why Smart People Make Predictable Mistakes
What cognitive biases are and why they exist, eight biases that do the most damage in real decisions — confirmation bias, anchoring, sunk cost and — and what a…

Cognitive Biases Explained: Why Smart People Make Predictable Mistakes

What cognitive biases are and why they exist, eight biases that do the most damage in real decisions — confir…

Jul 05, 2026