Sharpen how you think, one mental model at a time.
An extended warranty is insurance sold at the counter, and insurance is priced to lose you money on average.…
Two lenses explain most surprising outcomes: probability, which treats any single result as one draw from a r…
A thinking toolkit degrades in three specific places — retrieval, calibration, and fit — and only one of them…
A decision framework for a search that most parents run badly: how to look for free or subsidised child care…
Automation bias is the tendency to over-trust a machine's output and under-check it. Here is the precise defi…
Intelligence does not protect a decision from being wrong — it makes the defence of it more convincing. The m…
The gap between feeling ready and being ready is widest on exams that take a year to prepare for. Four moves…
A cognitive decision framework for handbag purchases — overcoming status bias, applying value-based criteria,…
Most bad solutions are answers to the wrong question. A structured problem-solving process — define the real…
A decision framework for putting a bocce court in a Tracy backyard - separating reversible from irreversible…
A clear-thinking guide to making a confident call on a costly backyard project — the decision traps (anchorin…
Considering the opposite, steelmanning, the assigned devil's advocate, and the premortem all claim to counter…