Thinking in Base Rates: The Habit That Fixes Most Bad Predictions
What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and ho...
Sharpen how you think, one mental model at a time.
What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and ho...
Follower counts feel success, but they're a classic vanity metric. Using a few mental models — vanity vs actio...
A practical system for building an offline study library — spaced review, a working note structure, and keepin...
Why the study methods that feel most productive are often the weakest, and the evidence-minded techniques — re...
What mental models are, why a latticework of them beats raw intelligence, nine foundational models worth learn...
A step-by-step framework for better decisions — separating decision quality from luck, sizing the decision, we...
What cognitive biases are and why they exist, eight biases that do the most damage in real decisions — confirm...