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Cognitive Biases Why Smart People Defend Bad Decisions
Intelligence does not protect a decision from being wrong — it makes the defence of it convincing.

Intelligence does not protect a decision from being wrong — it makes the defence of it more convincing. The me...

Aug 13, 2026
Cognitive Biases How to Overcome Confirmation Bias: Four Methods Compared
Considering the opposite, steelmanning, the assigned devil's advocate, and the premortem claim to counter confirmation bias.

Considering the opposite, steelmanning, the assigned devil's advocate, and the premortem all claim to counter...

Jul 20, 2026
Probability & Systems Thinking in Base Rates: The Habit That Fixes Most Bad Predictions
What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and how to use reference classes and the outside to make...

What a base rate is, why your mind ignores the odds that matter, a worked example of base-rate neglect, and ho...

Jul 14, 2026
Cognitive Biases Cognitive Biases Explained: Why Smart People Make Predictable Mistakes
What cognitive biases are and why they exist, eight biases that do the most damage in real decisions — confirmation bias, anchoring, sunk cost and — and what ac...

What cognitive biases are and why they exist, eight biases that do the most damage in real decisions — confirm...

Jul 05, 2026